By Alia Hassan, Director of International Policy
As the world races against the ticking clock of climate change, policymakers are faced with the daunting challenge of managing the risks of surpassing 1.5°C of global warming. The latest background paper from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), “Strengthening Regional Capacities to Address the Risk of and from Overshooting 1.5°C Global Warming in Latin America and the Caribbean”, marks an important milestone for the region. Although the paper faced delays, its findings are no less relevant today and provide key insights for decision-makers across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) navigating the complex terrain of climate interventions, including the controversial subject of solar radiation modification (SRM).
The urgency of overshoot and its implications
A major finding from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) is that global emission pathways based on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) announced prior to COP26 are likely to exceed the 1.5°C threshold during the 21st century. For LAC policymakers, this brings the urgency of preparing for a potential overshoot scenario into sharper focus. ECLAC’s report highlights the region’s vulnerability, emphasizing that while most countries worldwide have updated their NDCs, the emissions reduction targets still fall short of what is needed to avoid overshoot with current mitigation commitments continuing to be insufficient to close the gap, with potentially devastating consequences for the region.
SRM: a potential ‘emergency option’?
The paper introduces SRM as a potential “emergency option,” gaining increased attention from the scientific community. While SRM could theoretically offset some of the warming effects of climate change, it comes with significant risks and remains a highly contentious area of climate policy. The report discusses the technological readiness of SRM approaches such as Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) and Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB), noting that while research is progressing, these technologies are far from being ready for deployment. Furthermore, SRM’s potential environmental, social, and geopolitical risks are considerable and would need to be carefully weighed against any benefits.
Why this paper matters
Despite the paper’s delayed release, its findings remain crucial. The reality of climate overshoot looms larger today than ever before, and LAC policymakers need to be equipped with a full understanding of both traditional mitigation efforts and emerging technological options. ECLAC’s background paper serves as an important resource for enhancing regional capacity, drawing attention to the gaps in governance and scientific knowledge that must be addressed to make informed decisions about SRM.
The paper also stresses the need to continue building scientific capacity across the region, as well as strengthening governance frameworks for SRM research and experimentation. Given the complex and interacting uncertainties around SRM, the report calls for more robust public engagement and integration of ethical, social, and physical sciences in research, especially in low and middle-income countries.
Looking ahead: potential next steps for LAC
ECLAC’s background paper outlines several suggestions for possible next steps, many of which are pivotal for shaping the future of SRM policy in the LAC region. Among these, the following stand out:
- Strengthening capacities for mitigation and adaptation: addressing the root causes of climate change remains the top priority. Scaling up mitigation efforts and building resilience to unavoidable climate impacts are central to any comprehensive regional response.
- Strengthening regional understanding of SRM: as SRM continues to draw attention globally, the paper suggests that the LAC region should actively participate in research and policy discussions. This includes continuing to build scientific expertise on SRM’s potential impacts.
- Governance gaps: the paper highlights significant gaps in both international and regional governance around SRM, encouraging LAC countries to play a proactive role in shaping future frameworks inclusive of affected or underrepresented groups such as indigenous peoples, local communities and young people. By doing so, the region can ensure that its unique concerns and priorities—especially around ethics, equity, and consent—are reflected in global decision-making processes.
- Risk-risk assessments: policymakers are encouraged to consider SRM alongside other climate interventions within a “risk-risk” framework, ensuring that all potential outcomes are considered in a balanced and informed manner.
A Call for Regional Action
ECLAC’s background paper on SRM is a timely contribution to the ongoing debate on climate interventions in the context of foreseeable temperature overshoot. By offering a clear analysis of the challenges and opportunities ahead, the paper equips LAC policymakers with the knowledge needed to navigate an increasingly complex climate landscape. It also underscores the urgency of enhancing regional capacity, not just to tackle the immediate climate crisis but also to engage meaningfully in global discussions on emerging climate intervention technologies like SRM to make informed decisions that align with the region’s values and long-term priorities.